Architecture & practice·Judgement and reasoning traps
reading the timeline afterwards, the cause was obvious, and at 02:00 it had not been obvious to anyone.
Hindsight bias
Also calledcreeping determinism, should have known
The tendency to see a past outcome as having been predictable once you know it happened. It is the main thing that corrupts incident reviews, because it converts a reasonable decision made with partial information into an apparent mistake. The countermeasure is to reconstruct what was actually visible at each moment and to keep asking why the wrong action looked right, rather than why the right one was not taken.