jargon

Architecture & practice·Judgement and reasoning traps

someone said two weeks before anyone had estimated, and every number afterwards was near two weeks.

Anchoring

The first number mentioned pulls all subsequent judgements towards it, whether or not it was informed. It is why an executive's guess out loud damages an estimate before it is made, and why estimates are better gathered independently and then compared. The simple mechanical fix is to have people write numbers down before anyone speaks.

Commonly confused with